Bitcoin vs Gold & Silver – Episode 11 – $50k Bitcoin This Week?
2015 Bitcoin Fractal promises to take $ 10,000 by May 7
Perhaps the BTC rate is now repeating the 2015 fractal.
Technical indicators maintain the similarity of this pattern to the current price dynamics.
The main difference is the interaction of price with long-term resistance.
If the bitcoin rate now repeats the fractal from October 2015, then no later than May 7, the cryptocurrency will have to reach the important $ 10,000 mark.
Cryptocurrency trader @Yodaskkk shared on Twitter two charts comparing current Bitcoin (BTC) dynamics and price behavior in August 2015 – in the period immediately preceding the launch of the long-term growth phase, which lasted until December 2017..
In his opinion, the market is now repeating the 2015 fractal. In this case, the price can expect consolidation in the range of 9300-9000 and further growth..
Let’s try to figure out where bitcoin might go from current levels.
This fractal is based on the assumption that the March 13, 2020 base is the same as the August 25, 2015 base. Below we will compare both charts (the current price dynamics is shown at the top, the 2015 dynamics at the bottom).
The situation on both charts looks very similar, especially if you focus on the price behavior after hitting the bottom. In 2020, it took Bitcoin 48 days to break through the $ 7,500 resistance level, which had previously caused the decline. It took the market 53 days in 2015.
According to the logic of the fractal, yesterday’s high at $ 9420 coincides with the first high reached since the beginning of the rally in 2015 (circled in shaded in both charts). Both highs were formed above the upper border of the Bollinger Band and were accompanied by overbought signals from the RSI indicator, which, however, did not generate signs of bearish divergence.
It is noteworthy that in 2015 the price did not return to the broken resistance in order to test it as support (although it was close to that). If this time the situation repeats itself, it will mean that BTC will not return to the $ 7,300 level and test it for strength. Instead, the price will continue to rise to new highs after a slight pullback..
In 2015, the BTC rate was moving along the upward support line for about one month. Price tested it four times, the last time it coincided with testing the 50-hour moving average (MA).
This was followed by an increase, after which Bitcoin dropped slightly, continuing to remain above the Fibo level of 0.5 of the correction of the entire growth, and then continued to move up. The next high was set 8 days later at 8.33% above the first high.
In 2020, the price has also moved along the upward support line since March 1. Having touched it for the fourth time (just below the 50-hour MA), the pair began to rise. If the market exactly repeats the previous pattern, then BTC may sink to the $ 8100 region, and then resume growth and reach a maximum of $ 10,000 by May 7.
Long term resistance
The inconsistencies in this forecast appear if we take into account the longer term resistance line. In 2020 (top of the chart), the price has been following the downward resistance line for almost three years. The high we were discussing represented the fourth touch of this resistance line.
In 2015 (bottom of the chart), the price managed to break through two important resistance lines before reaching the aforementioned high.
Thus, it is possible that the BTC rate is now repeating the fractal from October 2015. If this theory is correct, then by May 7 the price will reach highs of $ 10,000, after which it will continue to move further north for the foreseeable future..
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