Bitcoin: April 7 could be a moment of truth for bulls

Bitcoin: April 7 could be a moment of truth for bulls



Bitcoin: April 7 could be bulls’ moment of truth

  • Bitcoin may now follow the December 2018 fractal.

  • The price is trading inside an ascending triangle.

  • We expect a bullish breakout either on April 7, or at the end of May – depending on which fractal scenario is realized.

Bitcoin: April 7 could be bulls' moment of truth

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Bitcoin’s current trend has a number of similarities with price behavior since December 2018, when BTC formed a base. What can this promise the currency at this stage?

Bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,782 on March 13. This was followed by rapid growth that eventually pushed the price to a high of $ 7199. The behavior of the MTC is in many ways similar to the situation in the region of December 2018, when the currency hit the bottom at $ 3194.

This similarity was noticed by cryptocurrency trader @BruhItsKoda. He posted on Twitter a graph comparing Bitcoin (BTC) performance over two periods: January to March 2019 and March 27, 2020 until now. After the January-March 2019 phase, the price launched a vigorous bullish trend that pushed it from the $ 4000 area to the $ 13,764 high reached in June 2019.

It was really just a passing observation of similarity space-wide, not just price .. post "capitulation", people still calling for new lows, grinding up, big pop / fail above local high, everyone now bearish. Somewhat similar structure. I havent traded btc in weeks for the record.

– Bodanomics (@BruhItsKoda) April 2, 2020

Will a similar story repeat itself this time? Let’s try to figure it out.

Comparison of fractals

In the chart below, we have compared the price dynamics of the MTC. Despite a number of similarities, the timeframe is an important difference. The price movement in 2019 is presented in a 12-hour chart, while the current chart is a 2-hour chart.

In both cases, bitcoin formed three lower lows, after which it launched an A-B-C wave rally. If this fractal persists, then the market is now experiencing the first decline after wave C, after which the price should consolidate and then make a rapid bullish breakout.

With regard to the current situation, such a breakthrough should occur on April 7th. The fractal we are considering is ideally combined with a probable ascending triangle, within which the pair has been trading since March 13.

Despite the current trading above the resistance line, the price did not manage to complete the daily trading above this level. On the contrary, it formed a shooting star candlestick pattern on the chart..

The formation of the triangle pattern should be completed on April 7, which also coincides with the date that the fractal suggests. Possibly the price will decline again to test the triangle support line and then make a bullish breakout.

Bitcoin: April 7 could be bulls' moment of truth

Alternative scenario

However, this fractal has not yet been confirmed. It is possible that the price repeats the dynamics of the 2019 fractal, but it does so in a different timeframe.

In this case, the base of March 16 is the same as the base of December 6, 2018. Then bitcoin formed a kind of triple top and dropped significantly. If we observe a repetition of this fractal, then the price may consolidate in the range of $ 5000- $ 7000 until the end of May, after which it will make a bullish breakdown..

This fractal fits better with longer-term charts, which show that BTC is currently trading around the weekly resistance level of $ 6,900. Support on the weekly chart is located at $ 5200. If this fractal repeats, the price will decline and test this support for strength, and then make a bullish break.

Bitcoin: April 7 could be bulls' moment of truth

Thus, the bitcoin rate is likely to repeat the fractal that began with the foundation of December 2018. In this scenario, BTC will consolidate below the $ 7000 mark for a while and then break above it. The charts suggest that such a bullish breakout could occur on either April 7 or late May. If in the coming days the price goes below the upward support line at $ 6500, the second option will be more likely. If this does not happen, we will look for a bullish breakout on April 7..


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